Evaluation of Landslide Susceptibility by Optimization IntegratedMachine Learning Algorithm Based on Gradient Boosting-TakeBoth Banks of Yarlung Zangbo River and Niyang River as Examples

Abstract

The geological structures on both banks of the Yarlung Zangbo River and the Niyang River are active, and landslides occur frequently. The landslide
susceptibility assessment can effectively reduce the damage to human life and property caused by disasters. This paper studies the performances of Weighted Random Forests, XGBoost and LightGBM algorithms based on Gini coefficient in landslide susceptibility. 188 landslide samples and 7 influencing factors are selected. In the process of model training, taking into account of Feature Selection Algorithm, the hyperparameters are optimized by the using of Bayes’ Theorem, Grid Search and Five-fold Cross Validation method. Precision, recall, F1 and Accuracy are used to analyze the prediction results of each level. The results show that landslide is most likely to occur within the elevation of 32-1544m and 2722-3752m, the gradient of 30-40°, and the distance of 200m from the fault zone, river and road. The extremely high and high landslide prone areas account for 12.14% and 12.41% respectively, and the low and extremely low landslide prone areas account for 26.47% and 29.55% respectively. More than half of the areas in Nyingchi Prefecture are not prone to landslide disasters. Among all models, LightGBM model performs best, with AUC value of 0.8432, accuracy of 0.8531, and F1 score of 0.8345. Damu Township and Bangxin Township in Motuo County, Danniang, Lilong, Zhaxi Raodeng Township in Linzhi County, Long Village in Lang County, and Jiangda Township in Gongbujiangda County are positioned in extraordinarily high-risk areas, with a excessive likelihood of landslides. Corresponding prevention and control measures should be taken in these areas.