Mathematical Modeling and Forecast 11 Years in Advance of the Dumping of Sand in Varadero Beach, Cuba, Using the Regressive Objective Regression (ROR) Methodology

Abstract

The specialists estimate that the most important challenge on the beaches is the dumping of sand. Sustainable tourism in our time must be conceived towards the future to ensure that resources are managed with due protection of ecological processes, biological diversity and the environment in general, hence our objective is to know the amount of the following sand dumps on the beach of Varadero mathematically modeling according to the data we have. A database of the dumping of cubic meters of sand in Varadero was used from 1987 to 2012, the methodology used was the Regressive Objective Regression (ROR). We can conclude that the model explains 100% of the variance with an error that cannot be determined, over time, all the variables are significant, the model depends on the shedding twelve times ago (Lag12Vert). In the long term, resources can be saved and the resilience of coastal communities to climate change and rising sea levels can be improved, maintaining the quality indicators required of the sand strip for the enjoyment of bathers and protection of the dunes. The forecast obtained for the next discharges has a maximum of 2,225,140.6 m3, in t50 discharge, a value this May that the discharge occurred before 2012.