Geospatial Multi-Criteria Modelling of Large-Scale Sugarcane Production Suitability in Taraba State, Nigeria

Abstract

This study conducts a comprehensive geospatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) to assess the suitability of Taraba State, Nigeria, for large-scale sugarcane production. The assessment integrates eleven critical biophysical and environmental criteria within a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment, including land use/land cover, elevation, slope, drainage density, soil classification, annual precipitation, and key soil fertility parameters (exchangeable potassium, nitrogen, phosphorus, and pH). Data were derived from high-resolution satellite imagery (Sentinel-2), digital elevation models (SRTM), national climate records (NIMET/CHIRPS), and global soil databases (ISRIC SoilGrids). Each criterion was standardized, weighted based on established agronomic thresholds, and combined using a weighted overlay analysis to generate a spatially explicit suitability map. The results classify the state’s landscape into three distinct zones: high suitability (15,697.9 km², 26.7%), moderate suitability (21,043.7 km², 35.8%), and low suitability (22,056.4 km², 37.5%). High-suitability areas are predominantly located in the central and southern regions, characterized by low elevation (<800 m), gentle slopes (<5%), deep alluvial soils, adequate annual rainfall (1,400–1,800 mm), and optimal soil fertility. The analysis demonstrates that integrated geospatial modeling is an effective tool for evidence-based agricultural planning. The resulting suitability map provides a vital decision-support resource for policymakers, investors, and agricultural planners to prioritize land allocation, guide sustainable investment, optimize resource use, and promote the development of a viable sugarcane agro-industry
in Taraba State, thereby contributing to economic diversification, rural livelihoods, and food security