Viscoelastic or Viscoplastic Glucose Theory (VGT #61): A Simplified Mathematical Model to Estimate Pancreatic Cancer (PC) Risk Probability Percentages and Its Moving Trend Over an ~7 Years Period from Y2015 to Y2022 Using Hyperglycemia, Insulin Resistance, Obesity, Chronic Inflammation and Metabolism Index as the PC Risk’s 5 Contribution Factors Based on GH-Method: Math-Physical Medicine (No. 649)

Abstract

PC is one of the ten most common cancers in humans. Most of the cases are pancreatic exocrine cancer, only 1%‐2% of cases of PC are neuroendocrine tumors. According to the American Cancer Society, the incidence of PC was 53,770 in 2019, with an 85% concomitant mortality rate of 45,750 (23,800 men and 21,950 women). It is the fourth cause of cancer‐related death in both men and women in the United States each year. In the United States, the number of new cases of PC was 12.4 per 100 000 men and women per year based on 2009‐2013 cases. Despite massive effort on diagnosis and treatment, the 5‐year survival rate has been increased to a mere 8%. By 2030, the number of deaths from PC will surpass breast, prostate, and colon cancer and become the second leading cause of cancer‐related death in the United States. Due to unclear symptoms and no screening recommendations, a vast majority of PC patients are diagnosed at late stages, with already advanced disease and no opportunity for surgical intervention. The risk factors for PC include tobacco products, obesity, diabetes, chronic pancreatitis, alcohol abuse, malnutrition, hereditary conditions, and family history (Figure 1). Diabetes mellitus (DM), or impaired glucose tolerance, is concurrently present in 50%‐80% of patients with PC. DM is a known risk factor for PC, and new‐onset DM could be an early manifestation of PC, resulting from insulin resistance induced by a paraneoplastic syndrome or pancreatic β‐cell dysfunction.  In addition, it has been demonstrated that moderate alcohol consumption had an insignificant impact, while high alcohol intake was associated with an increased risk of PC. Although the effects of DM and alcohol abuse on the development of PC have been studied for the last few decades, their molecular mechanisms of action are not well understood. We conducted this review to update and summarize the mechanisms of association among diabetes mellitus, obesity, alcoholism, other factors, and cancerous pancreas. In addition, prevention and treatment strategies are also critically discussed in this review paper.