Decarbonizing Transport Systems: Freight and Logistic Policy Pathways toward the EU “Fit for 55”

Abstract

Logistics and freight transport play a critical role in national economies but also represent one of the most challenging sectors to decarbonization, due to its operational complexity, fragmented structure, and strong dependence on fossil fuels. In Italy, despite progressive technological improvements, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from road freight remain significantly above the reduction trajectory required by the European Union’s Fit for 55 targets. This paper investigates how logistics and operational strategies, framed within the Avoid–Shift–Improve (ASI) approach, can contribute to the decarbonization of the Italian road freight sector by 2030. A bottom-up analytical methodology is adopted to estimate current (2023) road freight mobility demand associated with the Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) emissions, disaggregated by vehicle class, Euro emission standard and road type. Starting from this baseline, a set of policy-driven scenarios is developed, including a Business-As-Usual and an optimistic ASI-oriented scenario, and an additional Logistics Rationalization Scenario (LRS) based on freight transport optimization and network restructuring measures. The Avoid dimension is explored through logistics optimization measures, such as load consolidation, reduction of empty trips, and efficiency improvements in last-mile distribution. The Shift dimension evaluates the impact of modal reallocation from road to rail and intermodal solutions for long-distance freight flows. The Improve dimension focuses on fleet renewal, electrification, diffusion of hydrogen trucks, and the adoption of low-carbon fuels such as HVO and biomethane. Results show that even under optimistic assumptions, technology alone is insufficient to meet EU climate objectives without significant logistics restructuring. The proposed LRS provides an additional contribution towards closing the remaining emission gap through freight consolidation, network optimization and reduction of empty trips. The paper concludes by discussing managerial and policy implications for logistics operators and decision-makers, emphasizing the need for coordinated operational and regulatory interventions to support the transition towards low-carbon freight systems. The paper also highlights the relevance of road network resilience assessment with particular reference to bridge infrastructure vulnerability and proactive risk management as a complementary infrastructure-side dimension of freight decarbonization strategies.