Time Series Analysis of Black Carbon and Rainfall Pattern in some Selected States in the Guinea Savannah Region of Nigeria

Abstract

Time series analysis of black carbon and rainfall patterns in some selected states in the Guinea Savannah region of Nigeria was assessed in this study over 40 years (1983 – 2023) using Satellite-derived datasets and images depicting the frequency, intensity, and concentration of black carbon in the region were produced and examined through remote sensing techniques utilizing Earth data resources from the NASA GESDISC data repository accessed via the NASA Giovanni platform. Trend analysis on black carbon and rainfall data from six (6) states (Oyo, Kaduna, Enugu, Benue, and Taraba states) was done using Microsoft Excel software. The lowest level of Black carbon concentration (0.65 µg/m3) in Benue State was observed in 1996. High concentrations of Black carbon (1.09 µg/m3) were observed in 1995, followed by 1.13 µg/m3 in 1990. The lowest amounts of rainfall (1070.63 mm) in Benue state were observed in 2023. A lower amount of rainfall (1619.84 mm) was observed in 2023. The lowest level of Black carbon concentration (0.52 µg/m3) in Bauchi was observed in 1983. High levels of Black carbon concentration (1.07 µg/m3) in Kaduna were observed in 2000 which the lowest amount of rainfall 940.71 mm was observed in 2021. The lowest amount of rainfall (860.34 mm) in Oyo State was observed in 2001. The data presented in this study will be crucial in influencing climate change mitigation strategies, enhancing climate resilience, and shaping policy frameworks in Nigeria.