Use of a Climate Change Scenario Analysis Tool to Anticipate Various Futures Associated with Extreme Urban Flooding

Abstract

This paper reviews the connection and impacts of flooding related to climate change in Southern Ontario. The cased study used was the City of Hamilton and the $20 billion portfolios of assets managed by the City of Hamilton’s Public Works Department. The process involved the development of a Scenario Analysis tool, which is well-suited to assess climate resiliency in the face of considerable uncertainty. After analyzing drivers of climate, two axes of uncertainty were selected and generated four potential outcomes. The findings contribute to municipal strategic and capital planning processes with the purpose of increasing community resilience and adaptation to frequent flooding events. The outcomes reveal significant program and policy implications, not just for the focus of our case study, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, but for other mid-sized coastal cities confronting and contemplating the effects of flooding associated with a changing climate.