Macroeconomic and Climatic Determinants of Diabetes Mellitus in Jamaica: An ARIMA and ARIMAX Time-Series Analysis, 2011–2024

Abstract

Diabetes mellitus represents a growing public health challenge in Jamaica, with substantial morbidity and mortality. While behavioural risk factors such as obesity, diet, and physical inactivity have been studied extensively, structural determinants, particularly macroeconomic and climatic influences, remain underexplored. This study examines annual diabetes prevalence in Jamaica from 2011 to 2024 and evaluates the impact of GDP, inflation, unemployment, exchange rate fluctuations, and rainfall using ARIMA and ARIMAX time-series models. Descriptive analyses indicate a decline in diabetes prevalence from 15.7% to 12.5%, alongside GDP growth, declining unemployment, and currency depreciation. ARIMAX results show that inflation is the only statistically significant exogenous determinant (β = −0.1181, p = 0.015), while prior-year prevalence exhibits strong temporal dependence (φ₁ = 0.7434, p = 0.032). Findings highlight the interaction between macroeconomic conditions and chronic disease, emphasising the need for integrated fiscal and health policy strategies. Policymakers should consider macroeconomic monitoring alongside behavioural interventions to mitigate diabetes prevalence.