Frustration in Oil Market Price Effect on External Reserves in Nigeria 1970-2017

Abstract

This study examines frustration in oil market price shock effect on external reserves Nigeria 1970-2019. Objectives are; to examine frustration in oil market price shock on the Nigerian external reserves 1970 to 2019 and to ascertain the impact of frustration in oil price on the Nigerian external reserves. The study employed the following advanced econometric techniques; Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests, Structural VAR approach, Choleski decomposition and Imposing Short-run Restrictions test, statistical tests & Co-integration test. Based on the above econometric techniques conducted, it was observed that all the variables used became stationary after the first differences at degree of order one I (I). There is Co-integration (long run relations) among variables used in the study. Our results indicated that oil price does significantly influence shocks on external reserves in Nigeria the period of the study. Furthermore, frustration in oil price does insignificantly have impact on the external reserves in Nigeria from 1970 to 2019. The researcher recommends that; less emphasis of control should be placed on international market oil price since the oil price has 81% influences of international market externalities ‘shock on Nigeria external reserves. Rather, more emphasis should be place on other non-oil sector contributions to Nigeria external reserves since it may has virtually neutral or significant internal control that could lend to positive effect on external reserves in Nigeria. Direct manipulation of cured oil production and supply control policy should be Nigeria interest since Nigeria economy operates system of floating exchange rates.