Forecast of Number of Malaria Cases in Ligula Referral Hospital in Mtwara, Tanzania

Authors

  • Batho P Maballa Department of Sciences, Unit of Mathematics and Statistics, Stella Maris Mtwara University, College (STEMMUCO) Mtwara, Tanzania Author
  • Shaban Ally Mnuli Department of Sciences, Unit of Mathematics and Statistics, Stella Maris Mtwara University, College (STEMMUCO) Mtwara, Tanzania Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47363/JHSR/2023(2)108

Keywords:

Model, Malaria Cases, Error, Forecast, Simple Moving Average, Trend Analysis and Prevalence

Abstract

Based on SMA model, the forecast of number of Malaria cases in Ligula Referral Hospital in Mtwara have been analyzed. The study employed data of LRRH Statistics office from 2013 to 2021. The findings revealed that 3 – years SMA model (with error of 10%) was better than 5 – years SMA model (with error of 14%) in forecasting the number of malaria cases at LRRH. Furthermore, the result showed a slight decrease in number of malaria cases at LRRH for the next two years, that is 2022 and 2023. The number of malaria cases may decrease by 12% and 5% in 2022 and 2023 respectively. This being the case, the government and other stakeholders should put much effort in ensuring there is significant decrease in number of malaria cases.

Author Biographies

  • Batho P Maballa, Department of Sciences, Unit of Mathematics and Statistics, Stella Maris Mtwara University, College (STEMMUCO) Mtwara, Tanzania

    Department of Sciences, Unit of Mathematics and Statistics, Stella Maris Mtwara University, College (STEMMUCO) Mtwara, Tanzania

  • Shaban Ally Mnuli, Department of Sciences, Unit of Mathematics and Statistics, Stella Maris Mtwara University, College (STEMMUCO) Mtwara, Tanzania

    Department of Sciences, Unit of Mathematics and Statistics, Stella Maris Mtwara University, College (STEMMUCO) Mtwara, Tanzania

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Published

2023-03-23

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 1 (2023): Volume 2 Issue 1

Section

Articles