Evaluating the Tumaini Initiative within South Sudan’s Fragile Transitions

Abstract

South Sudan continues to grapple with escalating instability, a deteriorating security environment, and uneven peace implementation despite signing the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) in 2018. In this context, the Tumaini Initiative was launched as an inclusive mediation platform to engage hold-out groups outside the main peace agreement and to support a more comprehensive settlement. This study examined the political and security dimensions of the Tumaini Initiative and assessed whether it represents effective conflict transformation or merely a parallel peacemaking with limited legitimacy. Using qualitative analysis of recent reports and monitoring bodies, the article situates Tumaini within broader national politics, ongoing violations, and regional diplomacy. The findings show that while Tumaini reflects an attempt to broaden inclusion, its structural integration into formal peace mechanisms remains weak, raising questions about its capacity to prevent relapse into widespread violence. The conclusion calls for deeper constitutional integration and more robust support from regional guarantors.