U.S. Semiconductor Export Structure under Innovation and Trade Policy

Abstract

Semiconductors are a foundational input for modern economic activity, and their international trade is shaped by both market forces and government policy. This study examines how U.S. innovation and trade policies are associated with changes in the structure of semiconductor exports, focusing on shifts in export allocation, destination concentration, and specialization rather than export volumes alone.

Using bilateral UN Comtrade data classified by harmonized system (HS) codes from 2015 to 2024, the analysis applies measures of export concentration and comparative export strength to assess changes in market dependence and positioning. The results indicate that major policy changes coincide with export reallocation across destination markets, while U.S. exports remain concentrated in technologically advanced segments. Overall, the findings link policy environments to observable changes in export structure in a technology intensive industry.