A World without Railways: A Counterfactual Assessment of Avoided Transport Emissions and Path Dependence

Abstract

Counterfactual analysis has long been used in economic history to identify the contribution of transport infrastructure to growth, market access, and territorial integration, yet it has rarely been applied to the climate consequences of inherited transport systems. This paper examines how current transport-sector greenhouse gas emissions might differ in a counterfactual world without mechanized rail transport. It combines a structured qualitative counterfactual with a static modal-substitution estimate based on approximately 2.9088 trillion passenger-kilometres and 9.8131 trillion tonne-kilometres of global rail activity. Passenger emission factors are drawn from United Kingdom greenhouse-gas conversion data, and freight factors use well-to-wheel European estimates. Under central assumptions, transferring current rail activity to road, inland-waterway, and air substitutes would increase emissions by approximately 1.23 Gt CO2e annually, within a sensitivity range of 1.07 to 1.55 Gt CO2e. Freight substitution accounts for about 85% of the central estimate. The historical climate value of rail consists less of any emissions that may have been avoided in the 19th century (while also doubtlessly connected to lower levels of economic activity) and can largely be attributed to the high-capacity network that has developed over time and can be easily switched to electric and also climate-friendly operation with the power system. The qualitative analysis examines the relationships between the absence of rail networks and mobility, regional development, urban structures and technology choices. The quantitative analysis in turn addresses a more restricted question: How much additional greenhouse-gas emissions would there be from year to year if all existing rail transport were to be operated using appropriate replacement modes on a global scale.