Modeling of Average Global Climate Change by 2200

Abstract

According to a predictive global climate model described and used in a recent study (April 2025), future climate change is relatively insensitive to various greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios, despite their significant differences. The author concluded that it is likely necessary to move even closer to pre-industrial CO₂ concentrations to truly reverse the current trend. This work aims to verify this hypothesis using a "280 ppm" scenario and to reproduce the 2025 study with a more powerful tool. To do so, the article begins by rigorously justifying the innovative principles of the model, improving its reliability, and expanding the scope of the simulations. Validated by comparison with data covering the period 1870-2025, the improved model simulates six CO₂ emission scenarios for the period 2026-2200. The results obtained are then compared with others described in the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Finally, the scenario offering the best compromise between feasibility and climate effectiveness is identified. Thus, the scientific community, policymakers and more generally all those interested in the problems caused by climate change will have an easily accessible tool and new perspectives on climate strategies to adopt for the benefit of future generations and biodiversity.