From Geopolitical Shockwaves to Strategic Resilience: Implicationsof the Geopolitical War for Indonesia’s National Food and EnergySecurity, and the Transformative Role of the Palm Oil Sector

Abstract

The military offensive launched by the United States and Israel against Iran in late February 2026 rapidly escalated into one of the most consequential geopolitical crises of the decade, triggering a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and sending shockwaves across global energy, fertilizer, and food commodity markets. This paper employs a qualitative literature review (QLR) methodology to examine two interconnected analytical questions: first, what are the thematic implications of this conflict for Indonesia’s national food security and national energy security, and second, how does the Indonesian palm oil sector contribute to strengthening resilience in both dimensions. Drawing upon peer-reviewed journal articles (2020–2026), institutional analyses, and expert policy commentaries, the study applies thematic synthesis to generate interpretive analytical themes across five major thematic clusters. Findings reveal that Indonesia faces compound vulnerabilities — driven by oil price escalation beyond APBN 2026 assumptions, fertiliser supply disruption due to Hormuz dependency, and food price inflation at 4.76% against a 2.5% target — that simultaneously strain food security in terms of availability and access while creating fiscal unsustainability of energy subsidies. However, as the world’s largest palm oil producer, Indonesia possesses a strategically unique national resilience asset: the sector simultaneously stabilises cooking oil supply (food security function) and reduces fossil fuel import dependence through progressive biodiesel mandates B35 and B40, which generated IDR 120.54 trillion and IDR 123 trillion in foreign exchange savings in 2023 and 2024, respectively. The paper concludes with substantive policy recommendations for cross-sectoral palm oil governance, diversification of fertiliser imports, and an accelerated bioenergy transition as structural responses to geopolitical food-energy vulnerability.